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Institute of IT Trainers - Freelance Trainer of the Year 2006 & 2009
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09
February

2020 Covid Scorecard

The Office of National Statistic website has finally released the final registered death figures of 2020, as I have a bit of time on my hands I thought I would take the opportunity to have a play around with their mortality figures in relation to all the preventative measures put in place by the government

To start with, lets look at the registered deaths for 2020, in relation to the lockdown and restrictions in England.

It is an interesting picture as you can see, there have been a few fudges during the year, the biggest is "Deaths could possibly be counted in both causes presented. If a death had an underlying respiratory cause and a mention of COVID-19 then it would appear in both counts."

But taking that little issue aside, at the start of the year, there was no separate classification for Covid until March 2020, so those recorded deaths was placed under the respiratory classification.

The most telling point is the introduction of mandatory wearing of masks on public transport, in relation to the number of deaths due to Covid:

Office of Nation Statistics 2020 Registered Number of Deaths for all Ages 2020

The other interesting thing is that it looks like Covid 19, decided to take a break over the summer months, when we had a few restrictions placed on our liberties.

I will leave you to digest this first chart.

This really made me curious to see what was going on regionally, especially as Liverpool has spent more time than most under on lockdown or another for most of 2020.

We was also guinea pigs for the government massive testing program of both symptomatic and asymptomatic citizens.

Now the most interesting thing to note, is that for the majority of 2020 the South East recorded the most Covid Deaths than any other region.

So riddle me this why was the North West placed in Tier 3 first, followed by the  North East?

Office of Nation Statistics 2020 Registered Number of Deaths for all Ages by Region

The eagle eyes amongst you might say that following the North West being put in Tier 3, that the number of death exceeded the South East, but with increasing testing one would expect an increase in positive cases symptomatic/asymptomatic, but here's the rub, if one dies within 28 days of a positie test, then Covid will be recorded on the death certificate, along with any other thing that could have killed you like a heart attack, pneumonia or being hit by a bus!




Office of National Statistics Total Deaths where underlying cause was respiratory disease

Well, well, well!!!!!

Throughout 2020 the no. deaths due to respiratory disease did not exceed previous years, in actual fact looking at the last half of the year it is the lowest for the last 10 years!!!

Looking at the separate deaths where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate, with the peak of Week 16, the w/c 17th April 2020 with 8,757, and it continues to fall.

When the UK introduced mandatory mask wearing the number of deaths for week 30, w/c 24th July 2020 was 217, and it declines until week 38, w/c 18th Sept where we can see the latest rise in the chart.

I guess the masks and/or facial coverings are not barrier to the transmission of this pesky virus.

In the ONS dataset it has the following caveat:

Note: Deaths could possibly be counted in both causes presented. If a death had an underlying respiratory cause and a mention of COVID-19 then it would appear in both counts.

My question still for you is, if a person can only die once how can it be counted as 2 deaths?

Surely you record the primary cause of death, as the actual cause of death?

Is it just me that thinks there is a world of difference between dying of Covid-19 and dying of a respiratory disease, but being found positive for Covid-19, which now includes a death within 28 days of a positive test, or am I just splitting hairs?

What are your thoughts on this?

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